Elections 2009 and BJP

India Lok Sabha elections are due by May 2009. After the last week trust vote next 10 months are going to be hectic for all; rather it would be 9 months as elections would be held in phases and last month would be needed for the polling schedule. With 6 weeks advance notice required for the election announcement, it is only seven and half months in which political parties have to plan their strategy. Fair weather friends would part and new alliances and alignments would come in the vogue. BJP got a shock of their life in the last election (2004) and it was only because they were complacent. Where Sonia Gandhi was active in building alliances, BJP allowed many existing alliances to switch sides or drift away. Now with intermittent state election wins for BJP, first real test for BJP would be coming elections for Rajasthan, MP, Chhatisgarh and Delhi. Except Delhi, everywhere is BJP government and they would be facing the anti-incumbency factor. BJP needs to take a lesson from Congress that how with a difference of 7 seats (Congress had 145 and BJP 138) they could rule for so long. It is good that opposition lost the trust vote. It has exposed all their bad apples. BJP needs to look at the fact why so many of its MPs have switched seats. Earlier as well 6 of their MPs were expelled by the parliament in a TV sting operation. It is other matter when Congress is involved (and Samajwadi party) now TV channels would also come forward and choose NOT to air this sting operation and speaker Somnath Chatterjee would not speak out about what is contained in this CD or dare to suspend anyone as mentioned in the CD. This is the example of double standards. The ruling alliance (UPA + Left) had expelled 6 BJP MPs just based on this sting operation and not letting them go to the court. Left was arrogant. They got the taste of their arrogance when Somnath Chatterjee did not resign and to add fuel to the fire Congress PM Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi are visiting his house as if he is planning to switch sides; yet you never know.

Enough of digression – I was analyzing and feel NDA has a good chance to come to the power, if they play their cards right. Playing the psephologist for a day with a margin error of +/- 5%, as sample size includes only me, in the following table, I am giving state wise seat details and what was BJP’s tally in 2004 and what can safely be projected for 2009. I have added Projected NDA column to indicate assuming they have alliance for those state seats, how many they can expect the seats from alliance partner. With a conservative estimate I was finding they are scoring 250 seats without much effort. Now if they can really push for extra seats (as given in Push-09) column, I can see at they can be 10 seats above the half way mark. Some numbers would definitely change but overall averaging out gain and loss they have fair chance to govern. I have taken into account that with their recent wins in Gujarat, HP and Karnataka they can do well. In UP they need to definitely improve from previous 10 seats to projected 30 seats. Tamilnadu and West Bengal they should have alliance and by this they must get 15 seats from each state. In AP Congress is strong so I have not projected many seats for them as Naidu is not keen to have an alliance with them. In case they work out something and get some alliance seats, they can equally reduce that number from UP kitty. It is also time, that BJP should start fighting elections in all the seats irrespective of whether their candidates lose the deposits. It helps in building a brand and opens up alliance opportunity. Last time they had just fought for 350+ seats. They must declare their Chief minister candidate for all states which are going for elections. They should stick to pre-poll alliances. It gels well with the public. Good win in Rajasthan, MP and Chattisgarh would boost the morale of their party workers. JD (U) in Bihar, Akali Dal in Punjab, Shiv Sena in Maharashtra would like to keep them as a junior partner but they need to start asserting themselves as compared to their partners, their performance has been far better.

STATE/UT Constituencies	543		Projected-Total-NDA-09	250
Halfway Mark (Simple Majority)	272		Gap (without push)	22
Election - 2009			Gap (with push)	-10
STATE/UT Constituencies	Seats	BJP-04	Projected-BJP-09	Projected-NDA-09	Push-09
1 . ANDHRA PRADESH	42		1		5
2 . ARUNACHAL PRADESH	2	2	1
3 . ASSAM	14	2	4	5
4 . BIHAR	40	5	15	15	2
5 . GOA	2	1	1
6 . GUJARAT	26	14	20		2
7 . HARYANA	10	1	2		2
8 . HIMACHAL PRADESH	4	1	3
9 . JAMMU & KASHMIR	6		1
10 . KARNATAKA	28	18	20
11 . KERALA	20				1
12 . MADHYA PRADESH	29	25	19		1
13 . MAHARASHTRA	48	13	17	17	2
14 . MANIPUR	2
15 . MEGHALAYA	2
16 . MIZORAM	1
17 . NAGALAND	1
18 . ORISSA	21	7	6	9	1
19 . PUNJAB	13	3	4	6
20 . RAJASTHAN	25	21	18
21 . SIKKIM	1
22 . TAMIL NADU	39			10	5
23 . TRIPURA	2
24 . UTTAR PRADESH	80	10	20		10
25 . WEST BENGAL	42			15
26 . CHHATTISGARH	11	10	8
27 . JHARKHAND	14	1	4	2
28 . UTTARANCHAL	5	3	4
29 . ANDAMAN & NICOBAR	1
30 . CHANDIGARH	1
31 . DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI	1
32 . DAMAN & DIU	1
33. DELHI	7	1	3		1
34 . LAKSHADWEEP	1
35 . PONDICHERRY	1
TOTAL	543	138	171	79	32

I am also observing government is putting a lot of information on the net. Check out this site for election commission of India www.eci.gov.in . There is a lot of useful information. You can also check whether your name is in voters list in your constituency or not. You can compare your Voter id information. I could find out there are at least 10 voters who have the same name as me in my constituency. For this option select on the home page displayed out of left menu - click on 'Voters Registration' => Select Electoral Rolls (Voters List). Please do note - being a government site it is not that fool proof. I was observing it for the past 2 days the above option is not working,yet you never know it may work in next 2 - 3 days.